Bitcoin is left stranded as Fed projections flip to 54% chance of rate hikes this year
Bitcoin’s rate-cut cushion has vanished as futures now price a rising chance that the Fed’s next move is higher.
Hello, Thursday.
Bitcoin is losing the policy backdrop that helped steady risk assets, and that shift matters beyond price. With futures now implying a 54% chance the Fed’s next move is a hike, the easy rate-cut narrative has broken, leaving crypto more exposed to macro surprises even as some inflation signals begin to soften.
That tension is reshaping the market’s plumbing. CME is introducing a regulated way to trade Bitcoin volatility itself, giving institutions a cleaner hedge as uncertainty rises. At the same time, BofA says tariff refunds could cool inflation and eventually restore a macro tailwind, while Glassnode’s quantum-risk findings put fresh attention on exchange custody as a structural vulnerability.
The global crypto market cap is $2.57 trillion, with a 24-hour volume of $78.51 billion. The price of Bitcoin is $77,127.76, and BTC market dominance is 60.0%. The price of Ethereum is $2,128.27, and ETH market dominance is 10.0%. The best-performing sector is Derivatives, which gained 14%. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently Extreme Fear (29).
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Bitcoin is left stranded as Fed projections flip to 54% chance of rate hikes this year
Bitcoin’s rate-cut cushion has vanished as futures now price a rising chance that the Fed’s next move is higher.
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CME’s BVI contract turns Bitcoin implied volatility into a regulated futures trade, giving institutions a way to hedge or bet on BTC turbulence without taking a direct price view.
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